Article by: SI Collectibles

Date: October 2025

Fast forward to October 2025. Wembanyama is back, he’s healthy, and he’s putting up numbers that suggest he didn’t miss a beat. In his fourth preseason game against the Pacers, he dropped 27 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, and three steals on 9-of-13 shooting in just 25 minutes.

More importantly, he’s moving well, he’s aggressive, and he’s playing with the confidence of someone who isn’t worried about his shoulder.

The market is noticing. Card prices that have been dead for months are starting to move. Not dramatically, but consistently. Base cards are up nearly 40% in 30 days. PSA 10 grades are finding buyers again. The question is whether this is the start of a real recovery or just temporary preseason hype.

Let’s look at actual numbers, because this is where things get interesting for resellers who understand risk.

Base 2023 Prizm #136 (main rookie):

• Raw: $16.15 (was $9.84 a month ago, was much higher before injury)
• PSA 10: $71-85 recent sales (was $738 in May 2025, was $875+ at peak)
• PSA 9: Around $40-50 range

2023 Prizm Draft Picks #2:

• Raw: Under $5
• PSA 10: Around $29 (was $330 at peak)

2023 Select base variants:

• Silver Prizm PSA 10: $80-100 range
• Concourse parallels showing similar depression

High-end cards still commanding premium:

• Nebula 1/1 sold for $860,100 in February (record for any Wemby card)
• Black Shimmer FOTL PSA 9 sold for $516,000

The pattern is clear: base and mid-tier cards are still trading 70-80% below their pre-injury peaks. High-end 1/1s and rare parallels held value better because ultra-premium cards are less volatile. But the cards most resellers can actually afford are still deeply depressed.

The case for buying Wembanyama cards right now comes down to three factors: his health, his performance, and timing.

Health: He’s played four preseason games without incident. The medical staff cleared him. He’s not being limited. Eight months of treatment and recovery appear to have worked. Is it guaranteed he stays healthy? No. But the risk has decreased significantly from February when nobody knew anything.

Performance: He’s not easing back into things. He’s dominating. In limited preseason minutes, he’s averaging over 20 points and showing the same defensive prowess that made him a Defensive Player of the Year candidate last season. Pacers coach Rick Carlisle, who has been in the NBA since 2001 and coached against legends, said about Wembanyama: “I just don’t ever recall someone who has so much influence on both ends of the floor.” That’s the kind of praise that moves card markets.

Timing: We’re in the sweet spot right now. Preseason has shown he’s healthy, but the regular season hasn’t started. Casual collectors aren’t paying attention yet. When the season starts October 21 and he puts up 25-12-4 blocks in real games that count, prices will adjust upward quickly. Early buyers have a two-week window before that happens.

Compare this to other players who came back from serious injuries. When Zion Williamson keeps getting hurt, his cards never recover. But players who prove they’re past their injuries see values rebound fast. The market rewards risk-takers who get the call right.

That said, this isn’t a sure thing. Wemby could get hurt again, or his past injuries could have a lasting impact on his game. It’s a calculated risk that requires resellers to accept the possibility of losing money or seeing capital tied up for months with no return.

If you decide the opportunity outweighs the risk, here are the plays that make the most sense right now.

Best value: 2023 Prizm base #136 raw ($16) This is his main Prizm rookie. It’s affordable. If he has a monster season, this card could easily hit $40-50 raw, maybe more. Buy 5-10 copies, hold through December, flip when he’s putting up numbers. Risk is low at $16. Worst case you’re out $160 for 10 cards. Best case they double or triple.

Graded PSA 10 play: 2023 Prizm base PSA 10 ($71-85) These were $875 at peak, $738 in May. At $75, you’re buying at 90% off. If he returns to even half his previous form and stays healthy all season, these could hit $200-300 by March. That’s 3-4X your money. But you need volume sales to confirm the market is really back.

Under-the-radar: 2023 Prizm Draft Picks #2 PSA 10 ($29) This crashed from $330 to $29. It’s technically a different rookie card and less desirable than the main Prizm, but at $29 for a PSA 10, the downside is limited. If the main Prizm takes off, this follows. Could hit $80-100 if the market fully recovers.

Avoid for now: High-end parallels and 1/1s These held value better, which means there’s less upside. A Black Shimmer that’s already $500,000 isn’t going to 10X. The real opportunity is in cards that crashed hardest and have room to run.

Grading opportunity: Raw base cards at $16 can be bought, graded, and potentially flipped as PSA 10s at $75-85. PSA grading costs about $20-25 per card with turnaround time. If you’re confident in centering and corners, you could buy raw, grade, and double your money. But factor in grading costs and time.

If you buy now, you need a plan for when to sell. Here are the signals that should trigger action.

Sell signals (take profit):

• Base PSA 10 hits $150 (you’ve doubled your money)
• Raw cards consistently selling above $30 (you’ve doubled)
• He strings together 5-6 dominant games and the hype cycle peaks
• Other rookie cards from 2023 class start surging (rising tide)

Hold signals (let it run):

• He’s playing 30+ minutes and averaging 25+ points
• Spurs are winning and heading toward playoffs
• Volume of sales keeps increasing week over week
• No setbacks or injury concerns

Dump signals (cut losses):

• Any injury news, even minor
• He misses a game for health reasons
• Performance drops below expectations
• Card prices start dropping again despite good play

The key is not getting emotional. This is a trade, not a collection. You’re buying low with the intent to sell higher. Set your price targets before you buy and stick to them.

Wembanyama isn’t the first hyped prospect whose cards crashed. Let’s look at what happened with others.

Zion Williamson: His cards surged out of the gate, then crashed with repeated injuries. They never fully recovered because he keeps getting hurt. Lesson: recurring injuries kill card values permanently.

Chet Holmgren: Missed his entire rookie season with injury. Cards dropped. When he came back and played well, cards recovered to reasonable levels but never hit the pre-injury hype. Lesson: missing time costs you momentum you can’t fully recapture.

Ja Morant: Off-court issues tanked his cards. When he came back and played well, they recovered significantly. Lesson: if the player performs, the market eventually forgives and moves on.

The pattern suggests Wembanyama’s cards can recover if he stays healthy and performs. But they probably won’t hit the absolute peaks from his rookie year when he was the unanimous Rookie of the Year and everything was perfect. The injury will always be part of his story.

Still, going from $75 to $200-250 is realistic if he has a strong healthy season. That’s a win for resellers who buy now.

Here’s the honest assessment for readers trying to decide if this is worth their money.

This is a high-risk, high-reward speculation play. You’re betting on a 21-year-old coming back from a serious injury and proving he’s still a generational talent. The upside is real – cards trading at 10-20% of their peak prices could 3-5X if everything goes right. But the downside is also real – another injury or disappointing season means your money is dead in the water.

The window is narrow. Regular season starts October 21. If you’re buying, do it in the next week before games start counting. Once he drops 30-15-5 in a real game, prices adjust immediately. The opportunity exists because we’re in the gap between “he looks good in preseason” and “he’s proven it counts.”

This isn’t for everyone. If you need your money to be liquid, if you can’t handle volatility, if losing 50% would stress you out, skip this. There are safer plays in sneakers, electronics, and retail arbitrage. But if you have some cash you can afford to park for 3-6 months and you understand card market dynamics, this could pay off.

Best approach: small position, clear targets. Don’t bet your entire bankroll on Wembanyama cards. Buy 5-10 base raw cards at $16, or 2-3 PSA 10s at $75. Set your sell target at 2-3X. Take profit when you hit it. Don’t get greedy and don’t fall in love with the cards.

The market is giving resellers who understand risk a second chance at Wembanyama cards. The first chance was his rookie year when he was unanimously ROY. That ship sailed. This is the recovery play, which is never as clean but can still be profitable.

Whether you take it depends on your risk tolerance and how much you believe in his ability to stay healthy and dominate. The cards are cheap. The opportunity is there. But so is the risk of another crash.

THE ABOVE ARTICLE / ADVICE / OPINIONS ARE PRESENTED BY SI Collectors